New year, A-share market trend of renewed volatility to continue the structural interpretation of the market in 2010. Therefore, the Fund's investments in 2011 to also become the focus of investor attention. Then, in the eyes of fund managers, the style of 2011, the market is more emphasis on what? What are the hot spots throughout the year may be? Current Funds Weekly give this invitation of the three fund managers.
Cinda Investment Director Zhan Qiang
years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main funding is plotting a new layout
Wall Jiufu fund managers, aspiring managers in the Small Cap Growth Yang Jianhua
Minsheng, director of research, domestic demand, aspiring fund managers Chen Dong
concerns about the inflation
Wang Zhan-Qiang: We think the next two quarters, inflation is likely to remain relatively high level of performance of the economy is strong, there is little sign of overheating, inflation will become a very important 2011 goal policy will focus more on sound, this is the basic direction of policy in 2011. And now we all generally agreed that there is likely to exceed market expectations of inflation, the current monetary policy into a rate hike cycle, it is a trend. To impact, the market will tighten policy to suppress the formation of a certain role. On the other hand, the current good momentum in domestic economic growth, strong economic performance, which may exceed market expectations. Policy tightening will continue, this will reduce the heat of the economy, but not a significantly reduced economic boom.
Yang Jianhua: Although the state has taken some measures, inflation in the short term may get some containment. However, the situation in 2011, can really depend on the implementation of policies to control inflation dynamics; the present organization of inflation there is a big piece of itself to differences, but no matter how the point of view, the common understanding is that inflation concerns.
We note that the central economic work conference set the tone for a positive and flexible sound prudent fiscal and monetary policy. As we understand it is through the data, the effect of policy analysis, and then to develop suitable measures.
Chen Dong: smooth operation, but in 2011 the macroeconomic situation facing more complex pressures of economic restructuring, resource and environmental constraints to strengthen and improve the livelihood of the people and the arduous task of maintaining social stability, short-term inflationary pressures. The short-term economic and social development issues and long-term issues are intertwined, structural and institutional problems exist. Therefore, the policy goal in 2011 is and policy orientation to maintain pressure, prudent and flexible.
concerned about structural opportunities
Wang Zhan-Qiang: The structural performance of the stock market in 2010 is very clear that the small-cap blue-chip and the great differences between the far more than any time before. On the size of the disk 2011, shares of the stock market, period, how to choose between the non-periodic, but also we are very concerned that the most important is to judge depending on the economy, and industry valuation differences. Based on our judgments, the real economy in 2011 will perform well, we are quite confident the stock market, and will therefore pay more attention to the good performance of blue chips are, we believe that these blue chip, large cap stocks, including some commodity cycle, including Shares in 2011 may have great appeal.
Yang Jianhua: Overall, the current low level of overall market valuations, but there is a structural over-estimated, that is represented by blue chip banking valuations at historic lows, while the overall small cap stocks valuation is high. Therefore, investment opportunities in 2011 mainly from the Bank stocks, for example, the overall performance in 2010 is not particularly good, but his true valuation is attractive, but they have some concerns about the market, such as the quality of bank assets, credit restrictions, capital adequacy ratio, interest rate spreads, changes and other factors, such uncertainty may lead to a low level of valuation. But I personally think that if large-cap stocks also continued to maintain in 2011 the valuation of such low levels, while investors worry about not become a reality, I hand, large cap investment opportunities that will come.
Overall, I am not particularly concerned about the large cap or small-cap stocks, I think as long as there opportunities for speculation, you should try to grasp, especially the investment opportunities gradually accepted and recognized by the market time.
Chen Dong: 2011 is the cycle starting point. Based on changes in the pattern of economic growth and the rise of the new economy, and the end of the current economic and policy at the end and the end of the valuation analysis, we judge the overall stock market in 2011 will be in the upward pattern of shocks.
style conversion on the issue, we believe that investment in stocks is not the first to consider the large and small, is more important than the style of conversion is the industry's wheels moving. Should consider the investment boom and growth of the industry, as well as the relative degree of the economy and growth, the industry's valuation is reasonable, and not because he is a large cap or small cap. Rational investment decisions investors should not simply be classified as small cap stocks and large cap stocks, but should take full account of the valuation and growth of the match, wheeled grasp industry trends, timing configuration to obtain excess returns industry. We determine the largest capital market in 2011 the opportunity came from: on the one hand, based on the support of the Government to expand domestic demand, bullish and steady growth of consumer-related class, along with consumer related industries upgrade; the other hand, optimistic about the proactive fiscal policy support the industry, including seven strategic emerging industries, as well as with the industrial upgrade, plug in the wings of some of the emerging industries of traditional industries, such as high-end equipment, machinery and equipment, white and other industries, as well as China's manufacturing advantages and benefit from the
the long view, we judge the most exciting investment opportunities driven by domestic demand from the private economy, opening the release of the dividends, as well as new energy, new materials represented a new round of promotion of scientific and technological revolution.
high-end manufacturing has great potential
Wang Zhan-Qiang: high-end manufacturing is a good investment logic. We believe that the future will continue to strengthen the industry is likely that some heavy equipment manufacturing, heavy industry, light industry is much higher than the threshold, much of China's competitiveness is also reflected in heavy industry, and as nuclear power, high-speed rail continues to advance, Heavy demand for high-end equipment is more determined. On the other hand, now we see not only the domestic manufacture of high-end equipment market has just opened, and in great demand, high-speed rail's construction boom in China is likely to continue for several years, may in 2013 to reach a high point, while domestic enterprises have shown a good pattern to open up overseas markets, many Chinese railway companies have to go out now, and in many Asian and African and Latin American countries to take orders and projects, some Chinese enterprises have also likely to compete for the United States, Southeast Asia, the high-speed rail orders This further increase investor confidence in the future high-end equipment manufacturing industry.
Yang Jianhua: We are more optimistic about high-end manufacturing, industry research we are doing the time, they found that many sectors of production capacity expansion, technology upgrade process, is to buy foreign equipment. Because many key parts of key equipment or no law of our own manufacture, which indicates that our technology and advanced countries there is still a gap, we also there is a rising high-end manufacturing space, and we also found in some sub-sectors Inside, some companies continue to emerge in the high-end manufacturing breakthroughs. These breakthrough pregnant with a huge market space, but also gave birth to a huge investment opportunities, so in the high-end manufacturing, which involves our focus on technological breakthroughs, import substitution of critical components, the key material of the provider.
Chen Dong: high-end equipment manufacturing industry is the high-end part of the equipment manufacturing industry, with technology-intensive, high added value and room to grow big, strong leading role in highlighting the characteristics of the equipment manufacturing industry is a national strategic industries and the rise of the sign industry, is a country manufacturing base and core competence. The next ten years, high-end equipment manufacturing industry will usher in the golden period of growth and become an important pillar industry of national economy. As one of the seven strategic emerging industries, high-end equipment manufacturing industry has been closely watched, and its five sub-areas of industry market volume compared with considerable development potential. We are very optimistic about growth prospects for high-end manufacturing. Specific to individual stock selection, we have to clear several principles: First, good texture, the company has a stable, sustained growth and profitability than the average market level; Second, good corporate governance structure, performance and smooth release; Third, the company has a good full pre- market accumulation, in personnel, technology, management, be able to paid off; Fourth, have successfully cut into the international industrial chain division of labor, technology innovation and strong; Fifth valuations reasonable, PEG did not significantly deviate from 1.5.
< p> Where investment opportunities in real estate stocks?
Wang Zhan-Qiang: We think that the price adjustment may be staged, from the economic trend, housing prices are likely to continue to maintain a strong situation. Be the policy victimizes the domestic commercial real estate to maintain a low current, it is not reasonable phenomenon, and we are optimistic about the commercial real estate aspects of the subject, and for residential stock, we also believe that the valuation of many property stocks have been quite attractive to power point, or no fall into the situation, they have to a large extent reflects a series of negative factors, once again suppressed by the real estate stocks will likely show more toughness than in the past, so We are very optimistic about investment opportunities in real estate stocks.
Yang Jianhua: In the current policy is not conducive to real estate stocks in the background, we remain cautious on property stocks. However, due to the implementation of real estate sale system, the next six months to one year's performance is essentially locked, and real estate stocks after a long period of adjustment, the relative performance of the coming year is the low valuation levels, there are requirements rebound Therefore, it also breeds a certain investment opportunities.
Chen Dong: current real estate sales prices grow too fast has been initially curbed. Investment in real estate section has a attractive valuations reflect the huge amount of protection of housing construction and real estate tax may be introduced to the pilot as the core of the there is a fixed value of the stock market, waiting for the policy to bring the industry to relax new growth opportunities.
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