Is extremely important. In our time thinking about the future of the Internet, from which the history of the evolution of other networks, we can learn many things. telegraph, telephone, railways, radio and highway history of repeated shows some patterns.
from pessimism to optimism, to swing the pendulum to swing. The human brain is used to linearly derived from the past to the future, however, the popularity of the network is often out of an S-curve. linear thinking formed a systematic prediction deviation. In the early stages of network evolution, pessimistic predictions often have the upper hand, because of the potential of the network are not fully recognized. However, as the network began to grow, but put to the overly optimistic forecasts.
1844, the Samuel Seoul. Morse could not convince the U.S. Congress-funded long-distance telegraph line, because lawmakers do not see the potential commercial value of the telegraph. until the first trans-Atlantic cable in 1858 when they were built, but the pendulum swing to the other end. industry Experts claim that cable will conquer the whole world, bring peace and prosperity. same thing repeated in a telephone history: In 1877, Western Union has refused to buy Bell's patent, ignored the future as the telephone; Since then, it dawned on me, trying to establish a competitive companies, because of the challenges encountered were forced to leave the court phone industry.
the case of the Internet and wireless communications is the same In 1996, the Internet is still in early development, Morgan Stanley said in a report, the Global Internet users will reach 1.5 billion by 2000. In fact the number of users reached 400 million. in the wireless communications industry, the expert is expected in 1990, the United States the number of users will reach 25 million in 2000, but the actual number is 109 million. After that, the pendulum seems to swing in the other direction faithfully go. eMarketer estimated that in 1998 the Internet advertising market will reach 8.0 billion, to December 2000, it again this figure to 150 billion dollars. However, the Internet bubble The tragic burst proved too overdone these projections optimistic.
evolution over revolution. in the new technology appears, a mature industry, the flexibility of the network of amazing. newspapers, radio and television have another showdown, the final has reached a peaceful coexistence, but by changing their capture new niche markets. civil aviation, railway and motor transport are at peace, each to meet the specific needs of different customers. mature network can not only adapt to reality, and they may change faster than expected. At the same time, the new network technology will be more coming later than expected. These factors add up to a new network technologies to reduce the market potential.
examples from the telecommunications industry can clearly see In 1986 out of it, ISDN service is as a revolutionary technology, it is higher than 14.4Kbps modem 10 times faster. until this service has millions of users when a 56.6Kbps modem technology has achieved the speed. A few years later, DSL technology will speed home access has raised an order of magnitude. Similarly, advocates of high-definition TV digital cable and digital underestimated the progress in satellite networks, but also to promote the broadcasting companies overestimated their The pace of high-definition programming.
and so on, the future prospects of 3G wireless network seems unpredictable .3 G is committed to 2Mbps rate standard to provide multimedia services. a few years down the development, its potential market is available turned in to the 2G network eroded. An example is the 802.11 wireless LAN, it is between 1 ~ 2Mbps can achieve short-range wireless communication.
simple innovation makes great value. the human brain likes to remember the important milestones , the glory given to the minority. We all know that Gutenberg invented the printing press, Edison invented the light bulb. But in focusing on the great technological breakthrough, we often forget that it was the invention of the release of the small breakthrough in the practical value of these . And we sell those to be wantonly into the killer application of the excessive attention that is often overlooked, the real killer application, in fact, its origins are very humble.
, for example, on the Internet, although e-commerce interactive applications and reap the eye, the Internet's killer application, and 20 years ago remain the same mm communication between the individual and the individual. Although the World Wide Web e-mail traffic is 20 times, but it is the e-mail has brought to consumers and businesses the highest value. in the field of wireless data, messaging services, who do not have the killer application of great importance, it is like to talk about than the service provider of mobile commerce as well as news and entertainment applications are more effective. there is a world of lessons learned is the value hidden in non-human known to the Department, the killer application in unexpected places has never been there.
looked impatiently at our future, we often forget the past, provided invaluable lessons. as radio commentator Paul. Harvey said : It always rhyme.